Tuesday, February 3, 2015

SIGNIFICANCE OF UKRAINE

Ukraine has long been a virtual battlefield open for fight-loving tribes near around. Ever since its foundation as an independent powerhouse, she has been a bone of contention, for, without conquering this steppes and plateau filled bowl, no regional power could have expected to be counted as serious in Europe or Central Asia.
 Kievan Rus made it the largest and most powerful state in the tenth and eleventh centuries of European history. The Golden Age of Kievan Rus' began with the reign of Vladimir the Great (980–1015), who turned Rus' toward Byzantine Christianity. During the reign of his son, Yaroslav the Wise (1019–1054), Kievan Rus' reached the zenith of its cultural development and military power. 
Then, Crimean Khanate, Ottomans, Russians (and even Lithuanians at a time) vied for domination of the fertile land under Kiev. Its famed churces, most notably the St. Sophia's Church, proclaiming Eastern Orthodox Christiandom attracted Ottomans who wanted to convert it for Islam's gain, Russians who had proclaimed independence from Roman Catholic papacy, Prussians and French who wanted their own converts besides obvious geopolitical gains.  In 1654, Khmelnytsky signed the Treaty of Pereyaslav, forming a military and political alliance with Russia that acknowledged loyalty to the tsar. In 19th century, Ukrainian nationalism became more forceful than ever before as Russian aristocracy failed to develop industrially at a pace comparable to Ukraine's Western neighbours in Europe. During Catherine's reign European immigrants were welcomed in Ukraine, especially Crimea to thin out the dominant Turkish population. 
First World War was particularly disasterous for the Ukrainians as it fought on both sides of the deluge. 3.5 million Ukrainians fought with the Imperial Russian Army, while 250,000 fought for the Austro-Hungarian Army. Then Bolshevik Revolution produced a new and far more powerful Russia and According to the Peace of Riga, western Ukraine was officially incorporated into Poland, which in turn recognised the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in March 1919. With establishment of the Soviet power, Ukraine lost half of its territory: the eastern Galicia was given to Poland, Pripyat marshes region – to Belarus, half of Sloboda Ukraine and northern fringes of Severia were passed to Russia, while on the left bank of Dniester River was created Moldavian autonomy. Ukraine became a founding member of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics or the Soviet Union in December 1922.
During Soviet era Ukraine saw famines responded by heavy industrialization. Stalin was particularly infamous for not trusting Ukraine's Russian sentiment though two future leaders - Khruschev and Brezhnev hailed from this region of USSR. 
Second World War saw some of the most fierce fighting of human history on Ukrainain terrotory. The number of ethnic Ukrainians who fought in the ranks of the Soviet Army is estimated from 4.5 million to a staggering seven million. The win was hard-won and extracted great toll in man and material from all of USSR. But Ukraine was hardest hit and its woes did not subside with the war. Heavy deportations to Siberia by Stalinist regime led a permanent bad-taste in its populace' relations with Moscow. It was left to less mercurial Khruschev, an old Ukrainian hand, to emphasize the friendship between the Ukrainian and Russian people. In 1954, the 300th anniversary of the Treaty of Pereyaslav was widely celebrated. Crimea was transferred from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR.During dissolution of USSR, A referendum and the first presidential elections took place on 1 December 1991. More than 90% of the electorate expressed their support for the Act of Independence from Moscow. 

Present confrontation between Kiev and Moscow has its historical roots but can be said to start in earnest in 2004 Orange Revolution when Russia-leaning President Yanukovich was removed to bring West-leaning Yushchenko and Tymoshenko to power. This was a hang-over of earlier Cold-War and has continued as such since then. 
That President Putin was more than a match for EU plus Big One in brinkmanship was evident in the way he allowed the situation in Kiev to deteriorate to the point that Yanukovich's eastern base saw it necessary to request for Moscow's military intervention. Once Soviet-era fleet of Black Sea and Crimea welcomed Soviet-era tanks, Part One was won by Russia and it generated such nationalistic fervour in Russia that West was forced to take it as a wake up call. Then, US led usual moribund reaction of economic sanctions and unspecified "other measures." Now, as rebels in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol are threatening to start mobilising 100000 soldiers to save fatherland from Kiev's and West's machinations, Washington is working to supply different kinds of missiles to ill-prepared and low-morale Kiev army. Moscow has sights on no less than Kiev itself while Brussels shudders in imagining an actual war with Russians. Minsk, Riga, Vilnius, and Talinn know that if Kiev is down, so will they. UN is as powerless as always in dealing with real issues.
So, suddenly, world geopolitical epicentre has shifted from desert of Iraq and Syria to steppes of Ukraine. To an outsider commentator, this is far more "entertaining" than new Caliphs and bin Ladens and Haqqani networks - here are modern weaponry with their unusual lethal power. To those having the misfortune of living in the war-zone, it is nothing less than a nightmare. Significance of Ukraine is not just in Donbass region or so being occupied by a particular protagonist. It is just the first of a new phase in Latent War between old foes of Cold War. May be, some bright day, smart diplomacy may just be able to stop a war but a new war-zone has been already created which is far more difficult for US to win. Here no no-fly-zones can be enforced, for obvious Russian presence - and economic sanctions won't work for the same reason. Washington knows this, Moscow knows this, and Brussels knows this. Hence the tension.